War and Conflict Journal

Al-Qaida Leaders Leave Iraq for More Fertile Fields in Afghanistan and Pakistan

The leader of the Sunni insurgent group al-Qaeda in Iraq, known by the names Abu Hamza al-Muhajer and Abu Ayyub al-Masri, and several of his top lieutenants have recently left Iraq for Afghanistan, according to group leaders and Iraqi intelligence officials, a possible further sign of what Iraqi and U.S. officials call growing disarray and weakness in the organization. It is believed that these al-Qaeda leaders see more prospects for success in Afghanistan and Pakistan than in Iraq.

Washington Post Article:

Pakistan Aids Taliban--Still

The Rand Corporation issued a report stating the obvious and the well-known to anyone paying attention to Afghan affairs:  That elements inside the Pakistani security forces have continued to aid the Taliban.  This despite the alleged alliance between Pakistan and the United States since the Allies invaded Afghanistan to liberate that nation from the Islamic Fundamentalist Taliban and its al-Qaida mercenaries.

The Taliban originally took power in Afghanistan with both covert and overt aid from the Pakistani military and the Pakistani intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI) in the 1990s.(see http://www.historyguy.com/afghan_civil_war.html for detailed information on the Taliban's rise to power).

The United States has been making noise lately about the Pakistani government's inability or, as this report leads one to believe, lack of desire, to rein in Taliban forces on Pakistani soil.  It is highly likely that if the current situation continues, with Taliban forces using Pakistani territory with impunity, that the U.S. will attack across the border.  Just as in the Vietnam War, when Communist forces used neighboring Cambodia and Laos for sanctuary, the U.S. may see the need to correct the problem itself. 

Whereas the 1970 invasion of Cambodia sparked massive and deadly anti-war protests in the U.S., a repeat of those types of mass demonstrations would be unlikely in America today. Without a military draft to drive millions of youths to the movement, today's anti-war organizations will not do anything substantial.  In fact, the anti-war movement, if it can justifiably be called a true movement, cares more about the war in Iraq anyway.  Afghanistan is increasingly becoming a truly "Forgotten War," which is a true tragedy, since in many ways, the outcome of this conflict is of more importance than what happens in Iraq.

U.S. Offers to Send Troops to Pakistan: Afghan War Expansion?

Analysis:  The U.S. is probably getting ready to cross the border to go after al-Qaida and the Taliban, but is making all of the requisite polite motions toward Pakistan's soveriegnty first.  Don't forget that the Bush/Cheney Administration will be out of office in less than a year, and they don't know who or what will replace them in the Commander-in-Chief's position.  Many analysts have harped on the possiblity they may attack Iran before they go, but more likely, in the view of the War and Conflict Journal, is a major push to crush the Islamist foe in Pakistan before next January.  And, if they find Osama bin Laden while in Pakistan, all the better.


U.S. Troops 'Ready' to Aid Pakistan--Washington Post, January 25, 2008

The Pentagon is "ready, willing and able" to send U.S. troops to conduct joint combat operations with Pakistan's military against al-Qaeda sanctuaries in Pakistan's tribal areas, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said yesterday.

The U.S. military is also beginning to construct as many as eight coordination centers along the Afghan-Pakistani border that will be staffed by officers from the three countries to more closely share intelligence and conduct combat operations, according to Maj. Gen. David Rodriguez, the top U.S. commander for eastern Afghanistan.

The first border center is being built at Torkham Gate in Afghanistan, a key crossing near the Khyber Pass and about 30 miles from the Pakistani city of Peshawar, Rodriguez said.

Cross-border attacks into eastern Afghanistan have dropped by more than 40 percent in the past three months, compared with the same period last winter, as Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters increasingly wage war on the Pakistani government, according to Rodriguez and a U.S. military review of border incidents.

Suicide bombings increased more than tenfold in Pakistan -- from five in 2006 to 60 last year -- while they remained relatively constant in eastern Afghanistan, according to the U.S. military data. "Insurgents are focusing more on gains and expansion opportunities in Pakistan," the assessment stated.

Gates and Adm. Michael Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, left little doubt yesterday that they believe U.S. troops -- whether in combat or as trainers -- can bolster the efforts of Pakistan's military in the rugged and lawless Federally Administered Tribal Areas, where U.S. officials say about 700 Pakistani troops have been killed battling al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters.

"If asked to assist, I think we could do a lot," Mullen said at a Pentagon news briefing.

Gates said that the possible joint combat operations, likely to involve small teams of U.S. troops, are a topic of "ongoing dialogue" with Pakistan's leaders and that U.S. troops would join in the fighting at Pakistan's request.

"They have not fully thought through exactly how they intend to proceed and their strategy going forward," Gates said. "I expect that that will happen."

Gates said al-Qaeda has allied with other extremists in the border area, possibly including Baitullah Mehsud, a tribal leader linked to the Taliban. "They clearly are much more active and working with other people," he said.

Rodriguez said Pakistani military leaders are increasingly willing to cooperate in operations on either side of the border. There is "a growing realization amongst all of them, that everybody needs to do more together," he said at a Pentagon briefing this week.

Last year, the U.S. military in Afghanistan established a shared computer link with the Pakistani military's headquarters and set up high-frequency radio communications to coordinate cross-border operations. It also surveyed Pakistani, Afghan and U.S. border positions, and stepped up training of Afghan border police.

2007 Afghanistan War Casualties for U.S., Britain and Canada

In 2007, 110 American troops died fighting the Taliban and al-Qaida in Afghanistan . 925 Afghan government police also perished in the war.

British losses totaled 41 troops, while the Canadian military lost 30 troops in combat.

4,500 Taliban militants were killed in fighting,

Fighting in Afghanistan escalated in 2007, and the American casualty figures are the highest per year total since the initial invasion of Afghanistan in 2001.

110 US troops die in Afghanistan in 2007--Associated Press, Dec. 31, 2007

British Special Forces in Iraq and Afghanistan

A very interesting and detailed article on British Special Forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the differences between UK and US Special Forces can be found at:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article2461368.ece

Baluchistan War 8.12.07

More violence in Pakistan's turbulent Baluchistan region:

Two bombs wound 7 in insurgency-hit southwestern Pakistan province--International Herald-Tribune, Aug. 12, 2007

"QUETTA, Pakistan: Two bombs exploded in separate towns in Pakistan's insurgency-wracked southwestern Baluchistan province Sunday, wounding a total of seven people, police said.

One bomb, hidden in a plastic shopping bag, went off at a traffic intersection in Baluchistan's capital, Quetta, wounding two policemen and two passers-by, said Rehmatullah Khan Niazi, a senior Quetta police officer.

No other damage was reported and there was no word on how seriously the four people were hurt."

Estonian forces in Afghanistan--News Release

From the UK Ministry of Defence, regarding Estonian/British cooperation in the Afghan War.

Estonia and the UK Deepen Military Cooperation in Afghanistan

Ministry of Defense, 4/11/2006

Estonia's armed forces will make a key contribution to NATO's expansion into Southern Afghanistan, Armed Forces Minister Adam Ingram said. Mr. Ingram was commenting on a memorandum of understanding signed in Tallin today between the UK and Estonia, underlining ongoing military cooperation between the two countries. Estonian forces have served with distinction alongside the UK in the northern Afghan city of Mazar-e Sharif, and last year announced their commitment to deploy alongside British forces into Helmand province in the south. The first Estonian troops will begin to deploy this week. The deployment is part of the expansion of the UN-authorized, NATO led International Security Assistance Force into southern Afghanistan. Speaking about the signing of the memorandum today, Mr. Ingram said: "Estonia and the UK have a successful track record of joint working in the northern Afghan city of Mazar-e Sharif. I very much welcome today's memorandum of understanding, which sets the scene for Estonian involvement in the UK-led Provincial Reconstruction Team in Helmand. This builds on Estonia's decision to contribute over 100 troops towards the expansion of the International Security Assistance Force into Southern Afghanistan. Estonian military capabilities are a greatly valued contribution to the ISAF's (International Security Assistance Force) work in helping to rebuild Afghanistan."

Afghanistan War News -July 31, 2007

2nd Korean hostage killed in Afghanistan--Seattle Times. July 31, 2007

Dead UK Afghanistan marine named--BBC News, July 31, 2007

Soldiers overwhelmed patrolling Afghanistan border--CTV.ca, July 29, 2007